2016 Week 5 Thursday Night ATS Pick

** As always, Thursday Night picks will be included as one of my five weekly picks. A full review of the previous week will be included when I pick the remaining four games this week**

Arizona -3.5 (115) @ San Francisco

After a dominant performance over Los Angeles in Week 1, San Francisco has lost three straight games rather decisively. Though Arizona is also 1-3, they have given away wins rather than losing games. While Arizona could be 4-0 with some lucky breaks, San Francisco is unambiguously a 1-3 team.

Arizona’s 1-3 record, as hollow as it may be, has definitely played a part in lowering this line. Additionally, Palmer’s absence is being priced in despite the fact that he has looked sub-par this entire year. Stanton will almost certainly play worse than Palmer, but by how much? Stanton has been in Arians' system for several years now and should be as competent as a backup can be. The much more meaningful injury in this game is actually San Francisco's Navarro Bowman, who is out with a ruptured achilles. He was not only the team’s best player, but also it’s captain on defense. His absence will lead to defensive disorganization on a short  week.

All things considered, I think this is still a better spot for 1-3, Palmer-less, Arizona than it is for San Francisco.