2017 Week 9 TNF NFL ATS Pick

Jets +3 (100) vs Bills

With no strong feelings about either team, this game is all about value. Both teams are perhaps a bit worse than their records and overall, I would agree that the Bills are measurably better than the Jets. How much better is tougher to say, but I imagine it's not the 6-7 points implied by this line. The Bills' offensive struggles have been masked by defensive scoring and opponent mistakes. The Bills have not scored more than 17 offensive points in any game, and while a fumble might break their way and put them over the top in this game, there's equal probability that it won't. You can't eliminate the downside risk, but at even money, you at least don't have to pay for exposure to it. That's good value.

** As always, Thursday Night picks will be included as one of my five weekly picks. A full review of the previous week will be included when I pick the remaining four games this week**