2017 Week 4 TNF NFL ATS Pick

Packers -7 vs Bears

In the first three weeks of the 2017 season, I've picked the Bears 3 times, and picked against the Packers twice. Considering, that I only pick five games a week, that makes me unusually long Bears and extremely short Packers, and yet here we are, picking the Packers against the Bears. 

To understand why, it's important to unpack what happened to each team last week. The Bears won as huge underdog in OT, on the back of a 6 point blocked kick swing and an incredible performance on the ground. Conversely, the Packers suffered an even larger swing on a Rodgers pick six, and needed OT to beat a team they should dominated in regulation. 

What the narrative above misses is the fact that blocked kicks are lucky and Rodger's pick sixes are incredibly rare. Had neither of these uncommon events occurred, we might be talking about how the Bears' inability to throw the ball cost them a close against the Steelers or how the Rodgers continues to pummel teams in Green Bay despite no supporting talent. 

As much as I like the Bears and dislike the Packers this season, I view this line as fundamentally incorrect.

** As always, Thursday Night picks will be included as one of my five weekly picks. A full review of the previous week will be included when I pick the remaining four games this week**