The 2012 Annual Review

The Annual Review2012

Overview

Our 2012 NFL season of picks followed a relatively normal trajectory. We started slowly through the first 4 weeks as we discovered which teams were outperforming expectations, and which were underperforming. Weeks 5 threw 12 proved to be our most successful as we took advantage of softer lines that had not yet adjusted to reflect the true value of each team. The final quarter of the season was our worst as lines adjusted and value evaporated.

Accuracy and Hypothetical Returns

On an unweighted basis, we picked 58.24% of our games correctly over the course of the 2012 season. Over the first 4 weeks, we picked at a rate of 60%. From weeks 5 through 12, we picked at a rate of 69.38%, but regressed in weeks 13 to 17 when we only picked 41.17% of games correctly.

From a weighted return perspective, our picks would have returned 17% on Value at Risk and 460% if winnings were reinvested in the next week’s picks. Our return on VaR peeked in week 9 at 35%. If reinvested, our return peeked in week 14 at 2,371%. Our best stretch was from week 2 to week 14, when our picks had a positive return in each week. Overall, we had positive returns in 13 of 17 weeks.

Weightings

We picked in favor of the Patriots, Packers, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Bears most often. We found these teams to be undervalued at various points in the season. The Patriots and the Packers were very good teams that lost early games which could have gone either way. This resulted in attractive value in the middle and late portions of the seasons. 

We picked against the Ravens, Saints, Dolphins, 49ers, and Redskins most often. We faded the Saints early in the season as we believed the loss of Sean Payton was seriously undervalued in the first 8 weeks. For the Ravens and Redskins, we believed that early losses on the defensive side of the football were seriously undervalued, though ultimately, excellent late season QB play proved us wrong. We believed that the 49ers were a good football team, but recognized their inconsistent play against the more physical teams, picking for the 49ers against finess teams like the Packers, Lions, and Bills, while picking against them against physical teams like the Rams, Seahawks, and Vikings.

Attribution

Compared to a benchmark where every team is taken every week, our picks added 21.60% to performance (Picking every team every week would result in a 50% pick accuracy and a -4.55% return after accounting for the juice).

Conclusion 

Overall, we view our inaugural season of picks as a moderate success. Though initial results were significantly above average, a lack of late season discipline brought us down to only an acceptable level. In coming seasons we look forward to providing more in depth content and picks that can truly be HAMMERED. 

 "You can't go broke taking a profit"

                           - Andrew Luck on Green Right Slot Spider 2 Y-Banana