Week 6 Thursday Night Special

As with our last Thursday Night Special, we will provide a full review of the previous week later this week. Tonight's pick will be included as one of our five Week 6 picks.

Indianapolis -2.5 (120) @ Houston

So far this season, all five Thursday Night Football games have been decided by 20 or more points. Needless to say, we expect to see a regression to the mean at some point this season, most likely starting tonight, as these two teams are very close in all around ability. Though Indianapolis has a slight edge, with the home field advantage, the numbers support value on Houston at home. However, we believe Andrew Luck has, and will be and immeasurable difference maker in this game. As we said after the Tennessee game, Luck is playing at an MVP level. Luck has been exceptional throughout the season, but we believe Indianapolis is still being undervalued. Their first two losses were narrow and to division leading teams and while many are discounting their wins against Jacksonville and Tennessee, we believe blowing out a bad team is just as impressive as narrow wins against great teams. In this game, we expect Houston to shut down the run and generate pressure against Indianapolis, but ultimately, Luck will make enough next level plays to edge out a narrow victory.