Week 11 Thursday Night Special

As with our last Thursday Night Special, we will provide a full review of the previous week later this week. Tonight's pick will be included as one of our five Week 11 picks.

Buffalo +4.5 @ Miami

Both of these teams really should have won last week. Buffalo fumbled what would have been a potential death knell touchdown into Kansas City's end zone for a touchback, while Miami relinquished the lead on a last minute touchdown to Detroit. The main difference between their games last week was that Buffalo outplayed Kansas City for nearly the entire game, while Miami got lucky with a blocked kick and a few short fields. Miami's struggles on offense were attributable to their inability to run and lack of pass protection. Though this is understandable against a defensive line like Detroit's, Miami now has to play what is potentially a better defensive line tonight. To make matters worse, Miami also lost its best and most important offensive lineman last week. Sometimes teams can overcome a single offensive lineman injury by bringing in a single backup, but Miami will be forced to shift players at almost every position along the line as Juwuan James moves from right to left tackle, setting off a domino effect of moves. The lack of continuity on the offensive line will be a massive issue for Miami in this game. 

We expect Miami to struggle on offense, but we also expect Buffalo to struggle. Miami's pass rush is for real and will be an issue for a below average Buffalo offense. The key to this game will be Buffalo's significant advantage on special teams. By holding Miami to short drives, Buffalo should see much better field position and, like their first meeting this season, will win on field goals.