2014 Week 11 Review & Week 12 Picks

Week 11 Review (Week 2-3, Season 23-32, All Time 126-111-2)

If Week 10's 2-3 record was comical, Week 11's 2-3 record would seem down right cruel. Based on our previous track record, or even just based on the 50/50 nature of an ATS pick, the probability of our, or anyone's, picks going 2-3 or worse for 8 weeks in a row is significantly less than 1%. However, it is still possible based on the nature of statistics and randomness. The flip side of the argument would be that there is no luck involved and that our predictions are netting weekly results below .500. While that would be impressive in its own right, if you subscribed to that view, the following information would still be just as useful to you--only in reverse. We will change nothing in our strategy and welcome anyone to test the laws of means and regression.  

Week 12 Picks

Arizona +7 @ Seattle

Long-term, we do not think Drew Stanton is a solution for Arizona and we believe that the more he plays in this system, and the more he puts on tape, the easier it will be for teams to exploit him and make him look like a backup. In the meantime, we are surprisingly comfortable backing Stanton and Arizona in this spot. While we expect Seattle to rebound and play well, they are too injured on defense to stop the run and too undermanned to rush the passer, which is having serious consequences for their underperforming secondary. We like Arizona to keep this game close by stopping the run on defense, while connecting on enough big plays on offense.

St. Louis +5.5 @ San Diego

In the last two weeks, St. Louis has beaten San Francisco and Denver. San Diego on the other hand is reeling from injuries and looks like a totally different team from the one that started the year so strongly. We think St. Louis will shut down the run and have a great chance to win this game outright.

Dallas -4 @ New York

This is an identical pick from last week's San Francisco versus New York call. Like San Francisco, we expect Dallas to run all over New York. Dallas has a much better red-zone offense than San Francisco, and should be able to convert those opportunities where San Francisco could not. We like Dallas in a blow out.

New Orleans -3 vs Baltimore

While New Orleans is not as scary as they used to be in the dome, they still are only a few games removed from a decisive win over Green Bay, which is looking better by the week. We think New Orleans, especially on offense, is being undervalued. Conversely, Baltimore has been completely different on defense since Jimmy Smith's injury, though this has been largely overlooked. Their secondary is a complete mess, and we think Drew Brees will capitalize on it.

New York +2.5 @ Buffalo

Yes, we still think Buffalo can be a good team, and yes, we still think they are significantly better than New York, but certain circumstances make this a very losable game for them. Due to weather, this game is being played in Detroit, and while the 4 hour drive from Buffalo is certainly makable for a fan, it is hard to imagine many making the trip given the circumstances. The stadium is likely to be half to three quarters full of Detroit fans, many of whom will be rooting against Shwartz. Though this shouldn't amount to a hostile road environment for Buffalo, it will decidedly not amount to any sort of home field advantage. However, the biggest problem for Buffalo is likely to be the lack of preparation time they have had for this game. Unlike most sports, games in the NFL are like tests. Gameplaning and proper studying can often be more important than sheer talent. Buffalo is essentially "winging" an NFL game. As a small aside, we also think Mike Vick has the potential to string together some nice games in the offense, and wouldn't be surprised if a now surprising explosive New York offense was able to move the ball against an otherwise excellent defense.