modeling — robbygreer.com - NFL Analytics Research

Using Market Regression to Improve Prediction Accuracy in the NFL

Through price discovery, markets produce incredibly accurate predictions about the future. Even the best models can benefit from regressing their predictions to those of the market. Using these methods, models like nfelo can predict NFL margins better than the market by itself.

AnalyticsRobbyNovember 14, 2020modeling, Prediction, market, nfelo, NFLComment

Margin Probabilities from NFL Spreads

NFL margins can be tough to model due to the higher probabilities of key numbers. Treating each key number as its own distribution creates a generalized model that can more accurately predict margin distributions and expected value

AnalyticsRobbyNovember 5, 2020modeling, key numbers, EVComment