Through price discovery, markets produce incredibly accurate predictions about the future. Even the best models can benefit from regressing their predictions to those of the market. Using these methods, models like nfelo can predict NFL margins better than the market by itself.
Read MoreHFA trends are volatile at the individual season level, but long term trends show a steady decline. From 2000 to 2019, trailing 10 season HFA declined from 2.9 points to 2.2 points
Individual teams may experience periods of elevated HFA, but elevated HFA is not predictive of future elevated HFA across any window of games
Variation in HFA for individual games does not appear to be significantly influenced by the mileage traveled by the away team. Away travel correlates with divisional games, which exhibit a much stronger relationship with HFA
Modeled HFA is 2.95 non-divisional games and 1.59 for divisional games
