Thursday Night Special Week 16

As always, we will provide our full Week 16 picks & analysis before Sunday's games. Tonight's game will be counted as one of our five weekly NFL ATS picks

Jacksonville Jaguars -4 vs Tennessee Titans

Statistically, these teams have had similar seasons through the first 15 weeks, averaging virtually the same points for and points against. Because of these similarities, the Titan's are being valued as only slightly inferior to the Jaguars and many Vegas insiders have purported the value to be on the Titans. We hold a very different view of this game. Despite having similar season statistics, the Titans and Jaguars are moving in divergent directions. The Titans haven't been competitive over the second half of the season, and as we have stated in previous weeks, we believe that the Titan's are the worst team in the NFL. On the other hand, the Jaguars have shown a good deal of fight despite their record and have been surprisingly competitive in several second half games. Since week 1, the Titans have regressed, and the Jaguars have progressed. As a team on the rise, the Jaguars have a clear advantage from a motivational perspective. From a tactical perspective, we believe that Jacksonville has an even bigger edge. The biggest struggle for the Titan's has been along their offensive line, which is feeling the effects of late season attrition. Conversely, the Jaguar's main, and perhaps only, strength has been the ability of their defensive line to stop the run and generate interior pass rush. The combination of both motivational and tactical advantages amount to a serious overall mismatch in favor of Jacksonville for this game, and we like them to win by at least a touchdown at home.